As of this article it is only May and regular season football is still over 100 days away. However the saying goes, “The early bird gets the worm,” this is the approach I take when it comes to fantasy football. The draft is over, and many of the free agents have found a new home. Now is when you have the chance to follow the important storylines that guide you to that steal in the draft. A lot will change between now and September, but in the theme of being early here are my early tiered rankings. The following rankings are designed for a ten team half point PPR format.
Quarterback Tiers
It comes as no shock that Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and Drew Brees headline the top tier. Even though I do believe Matt Ryan will come back down to earth this year I still think that offense is proficient and deserves to be in the top tier.
The next tier consists of the young veterans in Luck, Wilson, and Newton. Once again not much to say here except that I expect Cam to return to form with new weapons in Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel. If any three of these guys can stay healthy they are every week starters for your fantasy team.
Tier three is where things start to get interesting; if Big Ben can stay healthy he is easily a top ten quarterback based on the offense alone. Derek Carr broke into the top ten last year and I expect him to do it again as he is emerging as one of the elite quarterbacks in this league. Although I don’t see Kirk Cousins posting another top 5 finish I think he will finish top ten based on the offense and given his talent. Whether he stays in Washington is another thing.
The Fourth tier is where things get tricky; you have four guys in this tier who finished inside the top ten that I’m predicting to fall out of it. Those guys being: Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles. Then you have guys like Jameis Winston who didn’t even crack the top 15 but I have him headlining this tier. I believe with the new weapons in Tampa and another year under his belt Jameis Winston will become a week-to-week starter in fantasy. Other notable quarterbacks in this tier are Eli Manning, Phillip rivers, and Marcus Mariota.
Tier 5 is where the stream able quarterbacks can be found. If you’re someone who likes to wait on quarterback this is the tier to look for in your draft. Of these options I like Andy Dalton the best with a new speedster in John Ross, a healthy A.J Green and Tyler Eifert for a full 16 games.
The last Tier is more of an obligation as a ranker more so than a section for advice. If you play in a ten-team league this tier will most likely all go undrafted.
The next tier consists of the young veterans in Luck, Wilson, and Newton. Once again not much to say here except that I expect Cam to return to form with new weapons in Christian McCaffery and Curtis Samuel. If any three of these guys can stay healthy they are every week starters for your fantasy team.
Tier three is where things start to get interesting; if Big Ben can stay healthy he is easily a top ten quarterback based on the offense alone. Derek Carr broke into the top ten last year and I expect him to do it again as he is emerging as one of the elite quarterbacks in this league. Although I don’t see Kirk Cousins posting another top 5 finish I think he will finish top ten based on the offense and given his talent. Whether he stays in Washington is another thing.
The Fourth tier is where things get tricky; you have four guys in this tier who finished inside the top ten that I’m predicting to fall out of it. Those guys being: Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles. Then you have guys like Jameis Winston who didn’t even crack the top 15 but I have him headlining this tier. I believe with the new weapons in Tampa and another year under his belt Jameis Winston will become a week-to-week starter in fantasy. Other notable quarterbacks in this tier are Eli Manning, Phillip rivers, and Marcus Mariota.
Tier 5 is where the stream able quarterbacks can be found. If you’re someone who likes to wait on quarterback this is the tier to look for in your draft. Of these options I like Andy Dalton the best with a new speedster in John Ross, a healthy A.J Green and Tyler Eifert for a full 16 games.
The last Tier is more of an obligation as a ranker more so than a section for advice. If you play in a ten-team league this tier will most likely all go undrafted.
Running back Tiers
The top tier of running backs are clear and non negotiable. If you have a top six pick you need to grab one of these guys. Out of these studs David Johnson is my number one pick, he was in a league of his own last year and playing half point PPR only increases his value.
Tier 2 is another set of guys that you need to grab before the second round is over. The running back position is scarce and these guys are the workhorses for their team and will provide solid fantasy numbers on a weekly basis.
The next tier is a set of guys that are still the workhorse for their team but either don’t have the same talent or situation as some of the top tier guys. They will be solid RB2 option and should be taken around the third and fourth rounds. The top guy in this tier is Todd Gurley who I believe even in a bad situation has the talent to return to top ten form.
Next up is Tier 4 and is also the first introduction to the top rookies in the draft. Christian McCaffery and Leonard Fournette should be the lead backs on their team, but will need to adapt to the major league style before putting up big numbers in fantasy. I have Marshawn Lynch ranked right behind McCaffery, because I expect Lynch to be a feature part of the raiders offense, especially around the goal line. I also have former Packers running back Eddie Lacy and current Packers running back Ty Montgomery ranked back to back. Although I think both of these guys come with risk. Lacy has had a hard time staying healthy and Montgomery has only one year under his belt, he could disappoint fantasy owners but my guess is the packers offense keeps him as a solid flex play.
Tier 5 is spear headed by Frank Gore who I should probably move up in my rankings. Also you will see that I have Dalvin Cook Ranked ahead of Latavius Murray. I believe this is Latavius’ job to lose and if he couldn’t keep Jalen Richard and Dewayne Washington off the field last year I don’t see him keeping Dalvin Cook off the field. This will be a backfield to monitor all offseason. You also find hall of famer Adrian Peterson in this tier, his potential is limited by the pass first offense, the presence of Mark Ingram and his age. The remainder of this tier is full of guys that I would be ok with as my flex play.
Tier 6 is really where you start to take stabs in the dark and hope to hit something. Some of the guys in this tier are no more than backups with some upside, while others could see a big opportunity if the lead back were to go down. A perfect example is Samaje Perine. If Rob Kelley were to get injured, Perine would be in line for a work horse role for the redskins. Mainly this tier is full of the pass catching backs you will want to own for bye week dilemmas.
The last tier is really just the scraps you’re left with after all of the good running backs are gone. The one guy I need to move up based on the many articles I’ve seen is Kareem Hunt. Hunt has gained some attention of the beat writers who claim he could dethrone Spencer Ware as the lead back in Kansas City. This would be another backfield to monitor throughout training camp and preseason. Most of the guys in this tier are really just handcuffs you will grab at the end of your draft.
Tier 2 is another set of guys that you need to grab before the second round is over. The running back position is scarce and these guys are the workhorses for their team and will provide solid fantasy numbers on a weekly basis.
The next tier is a set of guys that are still the workhorse for their team but either don’t have the same talent or situation as some of the top tier guys. They will be solid RB2 option and should be taken around the third and fourth rounds. The top guy in this tier is Todd Gurley who I believe even in a bad situation has the talent to return to top ten form.
Next up is Tier 4 and is also the first introduction to the top rookies in the draft. Christian McCaffery and Leonard Fournette should be the lead backs on their team, but will need to adapt to the major league style before putting up big numbers in fantasy. I have Marshawn Lynch ranked right behind McCaffery, because I expect Lynch to be a feature part of the raiders offense, especially around the goal line. I also have former Packers running back Eddie Lacy and current Packers running back Ty Montgomery ranked back to back. Although I think both of these guys come with risk. Lacy has had a hard time staying healthy and Montgomery has only one year under his belt, he could disappoint fantasy owners but my guess is the packers offense keeps him as a solid flex play.
Tier 5 is spear headed by Frank Gore who I should probably move up in my rankings. Also you will see that I have Dalvin Cook Ranked ahead of Latavius Murray. I believe this is Latavius’ job to lose and if he couldn’t keep Jalen Richard and Dewayne Washington off the field last year I don’t see him keeping Dalvin Cook off the field. This will be a backfield to monitor all offseason. You also find hall of famer Adrian Peterson in this tier, his potential is limited by the pass first offense, the presence of Mark Ingram and his age. The remainder of this tier is full of guys that I would be ok with as my flex play.
Tier 6 is really where you start to take stabs in the dark and hope to hit something. Some of the guys in this tier are no more than backups with some upside, while others could see a big opportunity if the lead back were to go down. A perfect example is Samaje Perine. If Rob Kelley were to get injured, Perine would be in line for a work horse role for the redskins. Mainly this tier is full of the pass catching backs you will want to own for bye week dilemmas.
The last tier is really just the scraps you’re left with after all of the good running backs are gone. The one guy I need to move up based on the many articles I’ve seen is Kareem Hunt. Hunt has gained some attention of the beat writers who claim he could dethrone Spencer Ware as the lead back in Kansas City. This would be another backfield to monitor throughout training camp and preseason. Most of the guys in this tier are really just handcuffs you will grab at the end of your draft.
Wide Receiver Tiers
The top wide receiver tier is pretty much the same across all fantasy analysts; the one receiver who I think belongs alongside Brown, Beckham and Jones is Mike Evans. Evans dominated last year with 173 targets, 1300 yards and 12 touchdowns. This is also a guy who has never seen less than 120 targets and never had less than 1000 yards receiving. Any of these guys will help you dominate your league.
Tier 2 is the next crop of stud receivers, which consists of: A.J Green, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant and T.Y Hilton. There’s not much to say about these guys, they are some of the most elite receivers in the league and the top target on their respective teams. If they can stay healthy they are wide receiver one’s that you can get towards the end of round 1 and beginning of round 2.
Tier 3 starts with a guy who surprised many people last year with his production and that is Michael Thomas. In fact his production was so good he sent Brandin Cooks packing to the Patriots. He has no real threat to steal targets and with his height and the proficient offense of the Saints you can almost lock him in as a WR1 this year. I also expect three players to return to form; one being Hopkins who had an awful year last year, but a lot of that can be blamed on the abysmal play of Brock Osweiler. Another is Keenan Allen who tore his ACL in the very first game of the season. Coming back from an ACL is never easy but in a way it helps Allen that it happened so early In the season because it gave him ample time to heal up. Last is Alshon Jeffery who joined the Eagles this offseason. Although his health and scheme change is a question mark, He should have better opportunities with Carson Wentz than he would with a lack luster offense in Chicago.
The next tier is full of WR2/flex players mostly consisting of slot receivers who will rely on catches more so than touchdowns. Guys like Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Golden Tate and Stefon Diggs will give you a boost in PPR formats and would make solid a solid WR2. Don’t sleep on older players like Larry Fitzgerald either. Fitzgerald always seems to slide in drafts because of his age but consistently puts up solid numbers.
Tier 5 is full of flex plays and question mark players. How will Brandon Marshall perform on the Giants alongside OBJ? Will Martavis Bryant be able to play this season, and if so will he return to his former self? Can Kelvin Benjammin have a bounce back year? Right now I have most of these guys ranked as flex options but they are guys with WR2 and in some cases WR1 upside, so stayed tuned for updates.
Tier 6 is mainly full of guys who can be used to fill in for a stud receiver on a bye week. Adam Theilin leads this tier based on his target rate of last year. He was a favorite weapon of Sam Bradford’s and doesn’t have much competition outside of Stefon Diggs. Mike Wallace is the guy in this tier to keep an eye out for as he is about the only guy Joe Flacco has to throw to. He’s not appealing on paper but with a pass first offense and a ton of targets he should produce in PPR formats.
Tier 7 was cut short because you could fit another 15 to 20 guys in this tier and they most likely wont be drafted in ten team leagues, but I will consider extending my rankings in the future. John Ross is a long shot to produce consistent fantasy numbers no matter how fast he is. After breaking the combine record for 40-yard dash time, everyone wanted a piece of this speedster from Washington University. However he will only be a compliment to A.J Green who will mainly run deep routes, of which Andy Dalton is not good at connecting on. Tamper your expectations with Ross for this year and wait for him to develop.
Tier 2 is the next crop of stud receivers, which consists of: A.J Green, Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant and T.Y Hilton. There’s not much to say about these guys, they are some of the most elite receivers in the league and the top target on their respective teams. If they can stay healthy they are wide receiver one’s that you can get towards the end of round 1 and beginning of round 2.
Tier 3 starts with a guy who surprised many people last year with his production and that is Michael Thomas. In fact his production was so good he sent Brandin Cooks packing to the Patriots. He has no real threat to steal targets and with his height and the proficient offense of the Saints you can almost lock him in as a WR1 this year. I also expect three players to return to form; one being Hopkins who had an awful year last year, but a lot of that can be blamed on the abysmal play of Brock Osweiler. Another is Keenan Allen who tore his ACL in the very first game of the season. Coming back from an ACL is never easy but in a way it helps Allen that it happened so early In the season because it gave him ample time to heal up. Last is Alshon Jeffery who joined the Eagles this offseason. Although his health and scheme change is a question mark, He should have better opportunities with Carson Wentz than he would with a lack luster offense in Chicago.
The next tier is full of WR2/flex players mostly consisting of slot receivers who will rely on catches more so than touchdowns. Guys like Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Golden Tate and Stefon Diggs will give you a boost in PPR formats and would make solid a solid WR2. Don’t sleep on older players like Larry Fitzgerald either. Fitzgerald always seems to slide in drafts because of his age but consistently puts up solid numbers.
Tier 5 is full of flex plays and question mark players. How will Brandon Marshall perform on the Giants alongside OBJ? Will Martavis Bryant be able to play this season, and if so will he return to his former self? Can Kelvin Benjammin have a bounce back year? Right now I have most of these guys ranked as flex options but they are guys with WR2 and in some cases WR1 upside, so stayed tuned for updates.
Tier 6 is mainly full of guys who can be used to fill in for a stud receiver on a bye week. Adam Theilin leads this tier based on his target rate of last year. He was a favorite weapon of Sam Bradford’s and doesn’t have much competition outside of Stefon Diggs. Mike Wallace is the guy in this tier to keep an eye out for as he is about the only guy Joe Flacco has to throw to. He’s not appealing on paper but with a pass first offense and a ton of targets he should produce in PPR formats.
Tier 7 was cut short because you could fit another 15 to 20 guys in this tier and they most likely wont be drafted in ten team leagues, but I will consider extending my rankings in the future. John Ross is a long shot to produce consistent fantasy numbers no matter how fast he is. After breaking the combine record for 40-yard dash time, everyone wanted a piece of this speedster from Washington University. However he will only be a compliment to A.J Green who will mainly run deep routes, of which Andy Dalton is not good at connecting on. Tamper your expectations with Ross for this year and wait for him to develop.
Tight End Tiers
Tight end tiers are a lot easier to predict. In tier one is the beast among men, Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is the clear cut best TE in the league and if he can stay healthy for a full season will provide a weekly advantage at the position.
Tier two goes Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham, in that order. Jordan Reed could be on Gronk level if he could manage to stay healthy. Greg Olsen is a steady and reliable week in and week out. Travis kelce will post some bad weeks but his good weeks will be 6 for 100 and 2 touchdowns. Jimmy Graham showed us why we shouldn’t have given up on him last year and put himself back in that elite tier of tight ends.
Tier 3 Is your solid tight ends but they wont provide you an advantage, they will just keep you in the game. Tyler Eifert is right on the fringe of these two tiers but I decided to leave him out of the elite tier because he hasn’t proven he can consistently put up big numbers just yet. Delanie walker is another solid tight end option but is not the most consistent. The tight end I am most interested in this year is Hunter Henry who will be taking over Antonio Gates roll and could be a great value on draft day.
Tier 4 are the misfits who don’t really belong in tier 3 or 5 they are just right in between and will have 5 to 6 good weeks but I wouldn’t want to rely on them each and every week. If you draft Martellus Bennett or Eric Ebron I would pair them with another late round tight end and play the matchups.
Tier 5 is all of the streamer options, if you’re somebody like me you like to wait on tight end. Some guys like Cameron Brate and Jack Doyle have TE1 upside but I wouldn’t draft them as such, if you draft any of the guys in this tier you probably wont own them all year long, look at the matchups and plug and play at will.
The last tier is more if you are in a deeper league or really wait on tight ends and hope you hit on one of them. In that case David Njoku is the guy to take if you are going for risky picks that are boom or bust. He has all the potential in the world, but rookie tight ends almost never produce, tight ends take longer to adjust to the NFL, as compared to running backs or wide receivers that come in and make an immediate impact.
Tier two goes Jordan Reed, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham, in that order. Jordan Reed could be on Gronk level if he could manage to stay healthy. Greg Olsen is a steady and reliable week in and week out. Travis kelce will post some bad weeks but his good weeks will be 6 for 100 and 2 touchdowns. Jimmy Graham showed us why we shouldn’t have given up on him last year and put himself back in that elite tier of tight ends.
Tier 3 Is your solid tight ends but they wont provide you an advantage, they will just keep you in the game. Tyler Eifert is right on the fringe of these two tiers but I decided to leave him out of the elite tier because he hasn’t proven he can consistently put up big numbers just yet. Delanie walker is another solid tight end option but is not the most consistent. The tight end I am most interested in this year is Hunter Henry who will be taking over Antonio Gates roll and could be a great value on draft day.
Tier 4 are the misfits who don’t really belong in tier 3 or 5 they are just right in between and will have 5 to 6 good weeks but I wouldn’t want to rely on them each and every week. If you draft Martellus Bennett or Eric Ebron I would pair them with another late round tight end and play the matchups.
Tier 5 is all of the streamer options, if you’re somebody like me you like to wait on tight end. Some guys like Cameron Brate and Jack Doyle have TE1 upside but I wouldn’t draft them as such, if you draft any of the guys in this tier you probably wont own them all year long, look at the matchups and plug and play at will.
The last tier is more if you are in a deeper league or really wait on tight ends and hope you hit on one of them. In that case David Njoku is the guy to take if you are going for risky picks that are boom or bust. He has all the potential in the world, but rookie tight ends almost never produce, tight ends take longer to adjust to the NFL, as compared to running backs or wide receivers that come in and make an immediate impact.
Well that’s it, if you’re reading this it means you really had nothing better to do and I couldn’t be more thankful. This is my first attempt at rankings and I will be updating them frequently throughout the offseason. I would love to hear your opinions on which ones you think I have ranked too high or too low or maybe in a wrong tier. I always love a chance to talk football. You can follow me on twitter, @TRich_92. Leave a comment, share, and follow me on twitter. I will try to start posting new articles every week so stayed tuned. Next up are my thoughts on the rookie running backs who have the best chance to make an impact next year.