Last year Blake Bortles shocked many people, myself included, when he finished as a top 5 quarterback. Not many people had faith in Blake Bortles as a quarterback, let alone as a stud fantasy player. He scored 20 or more fantasy points in 9 out of 16 games last year, and finished the year with 316 fantasy points. So that brings me to this question, "who will be 'that guy' this year?" The guy that has an incredibly low ADP that has the potential to finish inside the top 10.
For me that guy is Kirk Cousins.
Now I understand Kirk Cousins isn’t the sexiest option, nobody is going to get excited at the guy who drafts him, but what he does offer is a great value, and high upside. In fact, he finished inside the top 10 last year just one spot behind Aaron Rodgers. Yet, he is being drafted as the 15th QB overall around the 11th round. That is an incredible value for a guy who has thrown for 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns last year. Below is a screenshot from NFL.com of Kirk Cousins' career stats. The focal point here is the 2015 season, as this was the only season that he started all 16 games.
For me that guy is Kirk Cousins.
Now I understand Kirk Cousins isn’t the sexiest option, nobody is going to get excited at the guy who drafts him, but what he does offer is a great value, and high upside. In fact, he finished inside the top 10 last year just one spot behind Aaron Rodgers. Yet, he is being drafted as the 15th QB overall around the 11th round. That is an incredible value for a guy who has thrown for 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns last year. Below is a screenshot from NFL.com of Kirk Cousins' career stats. The focal point here is the 2015 season, as this was the only season that he started all 16 games.
Another interesting stat I found on playbook.draftkings.com by Adam Levitan is, in the full games that Kirk Cousins has played, he has averaged 279.8 passing yards per game. That is second place in NFL history, only behind Drew Brees. Also, in 26 starts, he has thrown for 300 yards or more 12 times! That is more than elite QB's like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers. Kirk is also entering a contract year this year which bodes well for his fantasy value, if you believe in the contract year theory.
Another thing I expect to improve in the 2016 season is the Redskins’ offense as a whole. They parted ways with Alfred Morris and are moving forward with Matt Jones. Jones had an up and down year, but I expect him to have a solid year this season because let’s face it, he can’t possibly be worse than Alfred Morris was last year. Morris started every single game last year, and only managed 751 yards and one touchdown. That isn’t very productive, considering the team ran the ball 429 times. So, with Morris gone and Thompson as a change of pace back, the Redskins look to be better at running the ball than they were last year. This sets Kirk up for the play action to his elite tight end, Jordan Reed. If Reed and D Jax can stay healthy for the whole season, Kirk could put up major numbers this season. Not to mention first round pick, rookie wideout Josh Doctson, who should be a red zone threat at 6’4’’ with a 41 inch vertical. It seems that Washington built their offense around Cousins, and expect great things from him this year.
For all these reasons I expect Kirk to at least be in the top 10 again, but I believe he has a legit shot at being in the top 5! And the fact that you can get him so late in drafts means that you can take a chance on those other players in the middle rounds. He is so cheap I like to pair him with guys like like Tyrod Taylor or Matthew Stafford, and I am completely fine with playing the match ups with those guys.
You like that?
Another thing I expect to improve in the 2016 season is the Redskins’ offense as a whole. They parted ways with Alfred Morris and are moving forward with Matt Jones. Jones had an up and down year, but I expect him to have a solid year this season because let’s face it, he can’t possibly be worse than Alfred Morris was last year. Morris started every single game last year, and only managed 751 yards and one touchdown. That isn’t very productive, considering the team ran the ball 429 times. So, with Morris gone and Thompson as a change of pace back, the Redskins look to be better at running the ball than they were last year. This sets Kirk up for the play action to his elite tight end, Jordan Reed. If Reed and D Jax can stay healthy for the whole season, Kirk could put up major numbers this season. Not to mention first round pick, rookie wideout Josh Doctson, who should be a red zone threat at 6’4’’ with a 41 inch vertical. It seems that Washington built their offense around Cousins, and expect great things from him this year.
For all these reasons I expect Kirk to at least be in the top 10 again, but I believe he has a legit shot at being in the top 5! And the fact that you can get him so late in drafts means that you can take a chance on those other players in the middle rounds. He is so cheap I like to pair him with guys like like Tyrod Taylor or Matthew Stafford, and I am completely fine with playing the match ups with those guys.
You like that?